Apple Product Launches vs. Apple Stock (AAPL)
26 launch events, 2001-2025: does a hit or a miss show up in the stock price?
Introduction
Apple unveils new products at a few keynotes every year. Some became huge businesses (iPod, iPhone, iPad, AirPods) and some flopped or embarrassed the company (Apple Maps, the butterfly keyboard, AirPower, Vision Pro). This page lists 26 launch events, labels each a Hit or a Miss, and shows how the split-adjusted closing price moved 1 day, 1 week, 30 trading days and 90 trading days later, measured from the close before the event.
The dataset
| # | Product / Event | Event date | Verdict | Close before ($) | Close on day ($) | 1 day | 1 week | 30 days | 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | iPod (original) unveiled | Oct 23, 2001 | Hit | $0.34 | $0.32 | -4.6% | -7.5% | +24.9% | +23.7% |
| 2 | iPhone (original) keynote | Jan 9, 2007 | Hit | $3.05 | $3.31 | +8.3% | +11.1% | +4.7% | +28.7% |
| 3 | App Store opens (iPhone 3G) | Jul 10, 2008 | Hit | $6.22 | $6.31 | +1.4% | -1.4% | +0.0% | -48.2% |
| 4 | iPad keynote | Jan 27, 2010 | Hit | $7.36 | $7.42 | +0.9% | -3.3% | +9.5% | +21.9% |
| 5 | iPhone 4 keynote (WWDC) | Jun 7, 2010 | Hit | $9.14 | $8.96 | -2.0% | -0.7% | -1.6% | +17.3% |
| 6 | Antennagate press conference | Jul 16, 2010 | Miss | $8.98 | $8.93 | -0.6% | +3.4% | -3.9% | +24.6% |
| 7 | iPhone 4S keynote ('no iPhone 5') | Oct 4, 2011 | Miss | $13.38 | $13.30 | -0.6% | +6.9% | +3.8% | +34.2% |
| 8 | iPhone 5 keynote | Sep 12, 2012 | Hit | $23.59 | $23.92 | +1.4% | +6.3% | -6.6% | -31.8% |
| 9 | Apple Maps ships in iOS 6 | Sep 19, 2012 | Miss | $25.07 | $25.07 | +0.0% | -5.2% | -17.8% | -35.1% |
| 10 | iPhone 5c / 5s keynote | Sep 10, 2013 | Miss | $18.08 | $17.67 | -2.3% | -10.0% | +2.7% | +6.8% |
| 11 | iPhone 6 / 6 Plus + Apple Watch keynote | Sep 9, 2014 | Hit | $24.59 | $24.50 | -0.4% | +2.5% | +4.2% | +7.8% |
| 12 | Bendgate + iOS 8.0.1 pulled | Sep 25, 2014 | Miss | $25.44 | $24.47 | -3.8% | -1.8% | +6.8% | +17.5% |
| 13 | Apple Watch release | Apr 24, 2015 | Miss | $32.42 | $32.57 | +0.5% | -0.6% | -1.4% | -16.9% |
| 14 | iPhone 7 / AirPods keynote | Sep 7, 2016 | Hit | $26.93 | $27.09 | +0.6% | +3.8% | +8.7% | +11.4% |
| 15 | MacBook Pro Touch Bar + butterfly keyboard | Oct 27, 2016 | Miss | $28.90 | $28.62 | -1.0% | -5.0% | -1.4% | +20.0% |
| 16 | iPhone X keynote (also AirPower) | Sep 12, 2017 | Hit | $40.38 | $40.22 | -0.4% | -1.7% | -2.7% | +9.6% |
| 17 | HomePod release | Feb 9, 2018 | Miss | $38.79 | $39.10 | +0.8% | +11.1% | +11.4% | +20.2% |
| 18 | iPhone XR/XS revenue warning (reaction day) | Jan 3, 2019 | Miss | $39.48 | $35.55 | -10.0% | -2.6% | +7.9% | +19.5% |
| 19 | AirPower cancelled | Mar 29, 2019 | Miss | $47.18 | $47.49 | +0.7% | +4.4% | -1.6% | +5.5% |
| 20 | iPhone 11 keynote | Sep 10, 2019 | Hit | $53.54 | $54.17 | +1.2% | +3.0% | +12.0% | +48.8% |
| 21 | iPhone 12 (5G) keynote | Oct 13, 2020 | Hit | $124.40 | $121.10 | -2.7% | -5.5% | -7.4% | +0.8% |
| 22 | M1 Mac keynote | Nov 10, 2020 | Hit | $116.32 | $115.97 | -0.3% | +2.6% | +12.6% | +3.2% |
| 23 | Vision Pro keynote (WWDC) | Jun 5, 2023 | Miss | $180.95 | $179.58 | -0.8% | +1.6% | +7.8% | -0.1% |
| 24 | Vision Pro release | Feb 2, 2024 | Miss | $186.86 | $185.85 | -0.5% | +1.1% | -7.0% | +14.0% |
| 25 | iPhone 16 / Apple Intelligence keynote | Sep 9, 2024 | Hit | $220.82 | $220.91 | +0.0% | -2.0% | +7.1% | +4.1% |
| 26 | Apple Intelligence Siri delay announced | Mar 7, 2025 | Miss | $235.33 | $239.07 | +1.6% | -9.3% | -17.9% | -10.8% |
Breakout: hits vs. misses
| Average change | 1 day | 30 days | 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Hits | +0.3% | +5.0% | +7.5% |
| 13 Misses | -1.2% | -0.8% | +7.6% |
| iPhone keynote (2007) | +8.3% | +4.7% | +28.7% |
| Apple Maps ships (2012) | +0.0% | -17.8% | -35.1% |
Hits are up about 5% after 30 trading days while misses are slightly down, so the product's reputation does show up in the stock. But keynote day itself is nearly flat either way, and by 90 days both groups average about +7.5%: a bad launch has hurt AAPL for about a month, not a quarter. The two exceptions are the original iPhone, the only launch with a big one-day jump, and Apple Maps, whose release day was the highest close of 2012.
Glossary
- Keynote
- Apple's live product presentation (Macworld, WWDC in June, the September iPhone event). The stock reacts to the keynote because that is when the news becomes public.
- Closing price (close)
- The last price a share traded at when the market closed at 4:00 pm Eastern. All numbers on this page use closing prices.
- Split-adjusted price
- Old prices divided by later stock-split ratios (2-for-1 in 2005, 7-for-1 in 2014, 4-for-1 in 2020) so that a $702 share in 2012 shows as about $25, the same units as today.
- Trading day
- A weekday the market is open. "30 days" here means 30 trading days (about six weeks); "90 days" is about one quarter.
- Hit / Miss (verdict)
- The author's label: a Hit is a product that became a commercial success; a Miss flopped, was cancelled, or caused a public-relations problem.
- "Sell the news"
- A market saying: a stock rises on rumors before an announcement and goes flat or falls when it finally happens, because the news was already priced in.